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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ texans week 18, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
9-7
10
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
31
HOUTexans
10-6
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
3
0
0
10
Texans
7
4
7
7
25

Spread

HOU logo
-4

Total

OVER
38

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
300
340
Total Plays
65
57
Yards / Play
4.6
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.18
Passing Yards
224
152
Comp/Att
27/42(64%)
11/20(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.26
Rushing Yards
76
188
Rush Attempts
19
35
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-12.06
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-33
-7
Sack EPA
-5.29
-2.61
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
25
87
Penalty EPA
-3.24
-9.67

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+134
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-103.0
Home QB Adjustment
-97.2
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
+13.8
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
Value
Ptile
10/30
-3.0
32
11/06
2.4
69
11/13
-2.4
34
11/20
0.4
55
11/27
4.2
77
12/04
-3.9
25
12/11
1.8
64
12/18
-3.7
27
12/24
2.8
72
01/01
0.2
53
T. Yates headshot

T. Yates

Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-97.2
Value
Ptile
12/04
-3.1
30
12/11
0.9
59
12/18
-4.6
21
12/22
-6.0
14
01/01
-4.9
20

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Texans Defense
Bengals logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
19
4
Yards / Game
22
2
Passing Yards / Game
19
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
2

EPA

EPA / Play
19
2
EPA / Pass
18
1
EPA / Rush
21
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
24
Interceptions / Game
19
12
Fumbles / Game
4
22
Turnover EPA / Game
26
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
13
4th Down Efficiency
25
10
RZ Efficiency
25
11
Texans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Texans logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
11
12
Yards / Game
13
6
Passing Yards / Game
25
19
Rushing Yards / Game
2
12

EPA

EPA / Play
14
10
EPA / Pass
10
11
EPA / Rush
11
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
27
Interceptions / Game
4
29
Fumbles / Game
20
9
Turnover EPA / Game
20
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
14
4th Down Efficiency
30
8
RZ Efficiency
22
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

5-5
SU
3-5-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
22
W
W
O
11/06
7
W
W
U
11/13
-7
L
L
O
11/20
-7
L
P
O
11/27
3
W
L
O
12/04
-28
L
L
U
12/11
-1
L
L
O
12/18
7
W
P
U
12/24
7
W
W
U
01/01
-8
L
L
O
HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
6-2-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
34
W
W
O
10/30
10
W
P
U
11/06
18
W
W
U
11/13
28
W
W
O
11/27
7
W
W
U
12/04
7
W
W
U
12/11
1
W
W
O
12/18
-15
L
L
U
12/22
-3
L
L
U
01/01
-1
L
P
O