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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ browns week 14, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
1-11
19
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
48°F
16 mph
27
CLEBrowns
5-7
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
48°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
6
7
3
3
19
Browns
1
7
10
3
21

Spread

CLE logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
451
333
Total Plays
72
52
Yards / Play
6.3
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.08
Passing Yards
272
187
Comp/Att
23/39(59%)
11/24(46%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.09
Rushing Yards
179
146
Rush Attempts
31
27
Yards / Rush
5.8
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
27
17
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
12
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
20%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.57
-8.30
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-16
-5
Sack EPA
-3.33
-1.23
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
99
30
Penalty EPA
-4.43
-2.55

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+174
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,342
Home Field
+26.4
Base HFA
+48.2
Divisional Adj
-21.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.2
Home QB Adjustment
-1.8
Away QB Adjustment
+15.3
Market Regression
-41.9
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
Value
Ptile
11/25
-3.5
25
09/08
5.1
84
09/15
-1.3
44
09/22
-1.8
40
09/30
-13.2
1
10/06
3.6
76
10/13
-3.2
30
10/20
-3.0
31
10/27
-0.4
49
12/01
-1.6
43
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
Value
Ptile
09/22
-6.3
14
09/29
1.9
66
10/07
-14.4
1
10/13
-0.3
50
10/27
-2.1
38
11/03
3.4
74
11/10
1.8
66
11/14
2.8
71
11/24
4.1
79
12/01
-6.2
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Bengals logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
30
20
Yards / Game
26
21
Passing Yards / Game
11
10
Rushing Yards / Game
25
30

EPA

EPA / Play
25
20
EPA / Pass
29
15
EPA / Rush
22
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
17
Interceptions / Game
23
10
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
6
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
12
4th Down Efficiency
12
4
RZ Efficiency
30
25
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Browns logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
22
25
Yards / Game
22
29
Passing Yards / Game
14
9
Rushing Yards / Game
12
32

EPA

EPA / Play
22
30
EPA / Pass
21
29
EPA / Rush
12
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
9
Interceptions / Game
30
21
Fumbles / Game
2
25
Turnover EPA / Game
7
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
25
4th Down Efficiency
23
20
RZ Efficiency
14
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-4
L
W
U
09/30
-24
L
L
U
10/06
-3
L
L
O
10/13
-6
L
W
U
10/20
-10
L
L
U
10/27
-14
L
L
U
11/10
-36
L
L
O
11/17
-7
L
W
U
11/24
-6
L
L
U
12/01
16
W
W
U
CLE logo

Browns

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-7
L
L
U
09/29
15
W
W
O
10/07
-28
L
L
U
10/13
-4
L
L
O
10/27
-14
L
L
U
11/03
-5
L
L
O
11/10
3
W
P
U
11/14
14
W
W
U
11/24
17
W
W
O
12/01
-7
L
L
U