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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ broncos week 16, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
11-3
17
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
16°F
6 mph
20
DENBroncos
10-4
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
16°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bengals
7
7
0
3
0
17
Broncos
0
3
7
7
3
20

Spread

CIN logo
+4

Total

UNDER
39

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
294
390
Total Plays
70
63
Yards / Play
4.2
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.03
Passing Yards
186
277
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
27/39(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.18
Rushing Yards
108
113
Rush Attempts
33
21
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
59%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
10
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-0.82
-4.35
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-22
Sack EPA
-2.09
-4.58
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
45
40
Penalty EPA
-5.47
-4.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model65.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+147
Home nfelo
1,621
Away nfelo
1,649
Home Field
+102.0
Base HFA
+59.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.9
Time Adj
+21.4
Net QB Adjustment
+73.4
Home QB Adjustment
-42.7
Away QB Adjustment
-116.1
Market Regression
+2.8
Final Difference
113.8
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

R. McCarron headshot

R. McCarron

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-116.1
Value
Ptile
12/20
-3.4
26
B. Osweiler headshot

B. Osweiler

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-42.7
Value
Ptile
11/22
-0.4
49
11/29
-3.3
27
12/06
-4.4
18
12/13
-1.0
44
12/20
2.1
66

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Bengals logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
5
4
Yards / Game
16
2
Passing Yards / Game
30
12
Rushing Yards / Game
13
1

EPA

EPA / Play
6
1
EPA / Pass
2
1
EPA / Rush
23
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
12
Interceptions / Game
6
13
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
25
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
2
4th Down Efficiency
4
8
RZ Efficiency
5
17
Broncos Offense vs Bengals Defense
Broncos logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
18
2
Yards / Game
21
13
Passing Yards / Game
21
24
Rushing Yards / Game
17
7

EPA

EPA / Play
26
7
EPA / Pass
27
5
EPA / Rush
27
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
23
Interceptions / Game
30
3
Fumbles / Game
19
27
Turnover EPA / Game
10
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
14
4th Down Efficiency
22
16
RZ Efficiency
28
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
3
W
P
O
10/18
13
W
W
O
11/01
6
W
W
U
11/05
21
W
W
U
11/16
-4
L
L
U
11/22
-3
L
W
O
11/29
24
W
W
U
12/06
34
W
W
U
12/13
-13
L
L
O
12/20
10
W
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
6
W
W
U
10/18
3
W
L
O
11/01
19
W
W
U
11/08
-3
L
L
O
11/15
-16
L
L
P
11/22
2
W
L
U
11/29
6
W
W
O
12/06
14
W
W
U
12/13
-3
L
L
U
12/20
-7
L
W
O