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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ commanders week 5, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CHI logo
CHIBears
0-4
40
TBD
FedExField
70°F
1 mph
20
WASCommanders
2-2
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
70°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
10
17
0
13
40
Commanders
0
3
11
6
20

Spread

CHI logo
+6

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
451
390
Total Plays
64
68
Yards / Play
7.0
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.31
-0.09
Passing Yards
273
359
Comp/Att
15/29(52%)
37/52(71%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.05
Rushing Yards
178
31
Rush Attempts
32
11
Yards / Rush
5.6
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
9
21
Rushing 1st downs
9
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
47%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.88
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-9
-29
Sack EPA
-3.00
-6.05
Penalties
3
1
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-3.08
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,367
Home Field
+35.3
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-15.4
Home QB Adjustment
-17.9
Away QB Adjustment
-2.4
Market Regression
+17.6
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Value
Ptile
11/13
8.1
93
11/20
-2.0
38
12/04
6.4
90
12/18
2.2
70
12/24
-2.3
34
01/01
-8.3
5
09/10
-0.6
45
09/17
-8.8
5
09/24
-6.5
12
10/01
7.1
91
S. Howell headshot

S. Howell

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-17.9
Value
Ptile
01/08
0.1
53
09/10
-5.5
16
09/17
3.3
72
09/24
-15.6
0
10/01
2.4
66

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Commanders Defense
Bears logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
19
32
Yards / Game
21
32
Passing Yards / Game
23
7
Rushing Yards / Game
2
27

EPA

EPA / Play
23
32
EPA / Pass
25
32
EPA / Rush
3
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
16
13
Turnover EPA / Game
10
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
26
4th Down Efficiency
16
29
RZ Efficiency
14
19
Commanders Offense vs Bears Defense
Commanders logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
25
19
Yards / Game
24
12
Passing Yards / Game
6
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
1

EPA

EPA / Play
26
8
EPA / Pass
26
18
EPA / Rush
10
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
7
Interceptions / Game
30
1
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
4
RZ Efficiency
6
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

0-10
SU
1-8-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
-21
L
L
O
12/04
-9
L
L
O
12/18
-5
L
W
U
12/24
-22
L
L
O
01/01
-31
L
L
U
01/08
-16
L
L
U
09/10
-18
L
L
O
09/17
-10
L
L
O
09/24
-31
L
L
O
10/01
-3
L
P
O
WAS logo

Commanders

4-5-1
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
6
W
W
U
12/04
0
T
L
P
12/18
-8
L
L
U
12/24
-17
L
L
O
01/01
-14
L
L
U
01/08
20
W
W
U
09/10
4
W
L
U
09/17
2
W
W
O
09/24
-34
L
L
U
10/01
-3
L
W
O