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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ rams week 21, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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SF logo
SF49ers
12-7
17
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
20
LARRams
14-5
LAR logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
10
7
0
17
Rams
0
7
0
13
20

Spread

SF logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
282
396
Total Plays
50
76
Yards / Play
5.6
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.01
Passing Yards
--
326
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
31/45(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.29
Rushing Yards
50
70
Rush Attempts
20
29
Yards / Rush
2.5
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
16
25
Passing 1st downs
13
17
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
61%
3rd Down Conversions
3
11
3rd Down Attempts
9
18
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.56
-5.80
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-11
Sack EPA
--
-2.61
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
54
--
Penalty EPA
-7.68
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+90
Home nfelo
1,668
Away nfelo
1,639
Home Field
+32.5
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.8
Home QB Adjustment
+9.4
Away QB Adjustment
-11.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-11.5
Value
Ptile
11/15
2.7
73
11/21
-1.4
42
11/28
-3.1
30
12/05
-0.6
48
12/12
-0.8
47
12/19
0.3
55
12/23
-0.8
47
01/09
-0.7
47
01/16
-2.0
37
01/22
-9.1
6
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
Value
Ptile
11/15
-4.9
20
11/28
1.3
62
12/05
4.6
82
12/13
5.3
85
12/21
-3.1
31
12/26
-6.1
14
01/02
1.2
61
01/09
-4.2
23
01/17
4.6
82
01/23
8.7
94

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
49ers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
15
9
Yards / Game
11
13
Passing Yards / Game
26
27
Rushing Yards / Game
7
5

EPA

EPA / Play
11
6
EPA / Pass
8
9
EPA / Rush
15
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
28
Interceptions / Game
20
5
Fumbles / Game
30
28
Turnover EPA / Game
19
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
7
4th Down Efficiency
24
14
RZ Efficiency
6
9
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Rams logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
5
Yards / Game
7
4
Passing Yards / Game
1
19
Rushing Yards / Game
27
6

EPA

EPA / Play
9
13
EPA / Pass
2
13
EPA / Rush
31
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
24
Interceptions / Game
26
26
Fumbles / Game
11
15
Turnover EPA / Game
14
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
21
4th Down Efficiency
17
5
RZ Efficiency
17
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
20
W
W
U
11/28
8
W
W
O
12/05
-7
L
L
O
12/12
3
W
W
P
12/19
18
W
W
U
12/23
-3
L
L
U
01/02
16
W
W
U
01/09
3
W
W
O
01/16
6
W
W
U
01/22
3
W
W
U
LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-21
L
L
U
11/28
-8
L
L
O
12/05
30
W
W
U
12/13
7
W
W
O
12/21
10
W
W
U
12/26
7
W
W
O
01/02
1
W
L
U
01/09
-3
L
L
O
01/17
23
W
W
U
01/23
3
W
W
O