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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ rams week 16, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SF logo
SF49ers
1-13
22
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
59°F
6 mph
21
LARRams
4-10
LAR logo
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
59°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
0
0
15
22
Rams
14
0
0
7
21

Spread

SF logo
+6

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
325
177
Total Plays
70
57
Yards / Play
4.6
3.1
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.15
Passing Yards
253
78
Comp/Att
28/37(76%)
11/24(46%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
3.3
EPA / Pass
+0.00
-0.55
Rushing Yards
72
99
Rush Attempts
30
29
Yards / Rush
2.4
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
14
5
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
38%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.95
-7.65
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-13
-12
Sack EPA
-6.59
-6.25
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
100
45
Penalty EPA
-7.96
-3.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model63.0%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,352
Away nfelo
1,326
Home Field
+32.0
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
-26.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.0
Home QB Adjustment
-0.1
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
+27.4
Final Difference
92.8
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Value
Ptile
11/01
-5.8
12
10/16
-0.1
47
10/23
-4.0
19
11/06
4.5
81
11/13
2.8
71
11/20
-2.6
29
11/27
10.8
98
12/04
-12.5
1
12/11
-2.8
28
12/18
0.2
51
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
Value
Ptile
11/20
-3.9
20
11/27
-1.3
38
12/04
-11.7
1
12/11
-6.0
12
12/15
-7.3
7

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
49ers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
26
22
Yards / Game
31
9
Passing Yards / Game
29
13
Rushing Yards / Game
4
16

EPA

EPA / Play
29
17
EPA / Pass
30
18
EPA / Rush
10
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
2
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
29
20
Turnover EPA / Game
9
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
10
4th Down Efficiency
13
32
RZ Efficiency
4
31
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Rams logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
32
Yards / Game
32
32
Passing Yards / Game
23
27
Rushing Yards / Game
31
32

EPA

EPA / Play
32
29
EPA / Pass
32
29
EPA / Rush
31
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
3
Interceptions / Game
30
22
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
1
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
29
4th Down Efficiency
28
22
RZ Efficiency
24
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

0-10
SU
1-8-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
-12
L
L
O
10/16
-29
L
L
O
10/23
-17
L
L
O
11/06
-18
L
L
O
11/13
-3
L
W
U
11/20
-13
L
L
U
11/27
-7
L
P
O
12/04
-20
L
L
U
12/11
-6
L
L
U
12/18
-28
L
L
O
LAR logo

Rams

1-9
SU
1-8-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-11
L
L
O
10/16
-3
L
L
O
10/23
-7
L
L
U
11/06
-3
L
P
U
11/13
3
W
W
U
11/20
-4
L
L
U
11/27
-28
L
L
O
12/04
-16
L
L
U
12/11
-28
L
L
O
12/15
-21
L
L
U