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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ jaguars week 11, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SF logo
SF49ers
4-5
30
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
68°F
17 mph
10
JAXJaguars
2-7
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
68°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
17
7
3
30
Jaguars
0
3
0
7
10

Spread

SF logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
333
200
Total Plays
66
44
Yards / Play
5.0
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.34
-0.09
Passing Yards
162
146
Comp/Att
16/22(73%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.46
-0.12
Rushing Yards
171
54
Rush Attempts
42
16
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
25
14
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
13
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
50%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+4.92
-4.75
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-12
Sack EPA
-3.71
-3.47
Penalties
1
8
Penalty Yards
--
56
Penalty EPA
--
-7.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-141
Home nfelo
1,367
Away nfelo
1,567
Home Field
+75.0
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
+21.4
Net QB Adjustment
-16.5
Home QB Adjustment
-10.2
Away QB Adjustment
+6.3
Market Regression
-13.4
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Value
Ptile
10/25
-0.2
45
11/01
-8.8
5
09/12
0.6
57
09/19
3.5
78
09/26
-2.4
35
10/03
-4.2
23
10/24
-8.1
8
10/31
5.6
86
11/07
-0.2
52
11/15
2.7
73
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
Value
Ptile
09/12
-3.1
29
09/19
-8.8
6
09/26
-3.5
27
09/30
2.0
68
10/10
1.7
65
10/17
0.9
60
10/31
-1.7
40
11/07
-4.8
20
11/14
-7.0
11

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
49ers logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
15
28
Yards / Game
11
20
Passing Yards / Game
26
7
Rushing Yards / Game
7
22

EPA

EPA / Play
11
31
EPA / Pass
8
31
EPA / Rush
15
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
22
Interceptions / Game
20
30
Fumbles / Game
30
32
Turnover EPA / Game
19
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
25
4th Down Efficiency
24
30
RZ Efficiency
6
24
Jaguars Offense vs 49ers Defense
Jaguars logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
5
Yards / Game
27
4
Passing Yards / Game
16
19
Rushing Yards / Game
22
6

EPA

EPA / Play
29
13
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
21
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
24
Interceptions / Game
26
26
Fumbles / Game
28
15
Turnover EPA / Game
3
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
21
4th Down Efficiency
10
5
RZ Efficiency
28
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-3
L
W
O
09/12
8
W
L
O
09/19
6
W
W
U
09/26
-2
L
L
O
10/03
-7
L
L
U
10/10
-7
L
L
U
10/24
-12
L
L
O
10/31
11
W
W
O
11/07
-14
L
L
O
11/15
21
W
W
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-14
L
W
U
09/12
-16
L
L
O
09/19
-10
L
L
U
09/26
-12
L
L
U
09/30
-3
L
W
U
10/10
-18
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
U
10/31
-24
L
L
U
11/07
3
W
W
U
11/14
-6
L
W
U