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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ eagles week 13, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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SF logo
SF49ers
8-3
42
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
52°F
44 mph
19
PHIEagles
10-1
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
52°F
44 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
14
14
14
42
Eagles
6
0
7
6
19

Spread

SF logo
-3

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
456
333
Total Plays
57
70
Yards / Play
8.0
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.57
+0.08
Passing Yards
310
287
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
28/49(57%)
Yards / Pass
11.5
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.83
+0.18
Rushing Yards
146
46
Rush Attempts
28
18
Yards / Rush
5.2
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
24
23
Passing 1st downs
12
19
Rushing 1st downs
12
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
73%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
8
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-4
-27
Sack EPA
-2.16
-4.98
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
47
47
Penalty EPA
-6.21
-4.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,642
Away nfelo
1,691
Home Field
+28.9
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-16.1
Net QB Adjustment
-5.6
Home QB Adjustment
+14.4
Away QB Adjustment
+20.0
Market Regression
-67.8
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Purdy headshot

B. Purdy

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
Value
Ptile
09/17
1.8
62
09/21
3.6
74
10/01
6.3
88
10/08
8.1
94
10/15
-6.4
12
10/23
-0.9
44
10/29
5.3
83
11/12
5.3
83
11/19
5.5
84
11/23
-1.2
42
J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+14.4
Value
Ptile
09/14
0.7
54
09/25
0.7
54
10/01
4.8
81
10/08
7.7
93
10/15
0.7
54
10/22
3.9
75
10/29
8.6
95
11/05
5.2
83
11/20
-3.3
27
11/26
7.4
92

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Eagles Defense
49ers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
2
30
Yards / Game
1
26
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
4
11

EPA

EPA / Play
1
30
EPA / Pass
1
29
EPA / Rush
5
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
22
Interceptions / Game
12
26
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
24
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
30
4th Down Efficiency
13
25
RZ Efficiency
1
29
Eagles Offense vs 49ers Defense
Eagles logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
4
Yards / Game
9
9
Passing Yards / Game
10
17
Rushing Yards / Game
9
5

EPA

EPA / Play
7
18
EPA / Pass
10
8
EPA / Rush
6
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
27
Interceptions / Game
24
2
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
8
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
27
4th Down Efficiency
1
14
RZ Efficiency
9
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
7
W
L
O
09/21
18
W
W
U
10/01
19
W
W
O
10/08
32
W
W
O
10/15
-2
L
L
P
10/23
-5
L
L
U
10/29
-14
L
L
O
11/12
31
W
W
U
11/19
13
W
L
U
11/23
18
W
W
O
PHI logo

Eagles

9-1
SU
6-2-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
6
W
P
O
09/25
14
W
W
U
10/01
3
W
L
O
10/08
9
W
W
U
10/15
-6
L
L
U
10/22
14
W
W
U
10/29
7
W
P
O
11/05
5
W
W
O
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/26
3
W
W
O