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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ cowboys week 15, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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SF logo
SF49ers
5-8
33
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
41
DALCowboys
4-9
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
7
10
9
33
Cowboys
14
3
7
17
41

Spread

DAL logo
+4

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
458
291
Total Plays
81
58
Yards / Play
5.7
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.20
Passing Yards
308
204
Comp/Att
26/43(60%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.04
Rushing Yards
150
87
Rush Attempts
36
22
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
28
15
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
40%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.62
+5.65
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-17
Sack EPA
-6.10
-2.71
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
--
58
Penalty EPA
--
-8.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-78
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+10.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
-52.1
Home QB Adjustment
-76.2
Away QB Adjustment
-24.1
Market Regression
-80.4
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

N. Mullens headshot

N. Mullens

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-24.1
Value
Ptile
12/16
-0.1
45
12/23
-1.4
36
12/30
-1.7
35
09/27
2.4
62
10/04
-5.6
13
11/05
0.1
47
11/15
-3.6
21
11/29
-1.2
36
12/07
3.9
72
12/13
-5.7
12
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-76.2
Value
Ptile
12/08
-3.3
29
12/15
-7.2
11
12/22
3.9
78
12/29
-2.0
38
10/19
-5.3
14
10/25
-13.1
1
11/22
1.7
56
11/26
-3.0
24
12/08
2.6
64
12/13
-1.2
36

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
49ers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
21
28
Yards / Game
14
23
Passing Yards / Game
13
16
Rushing Yards / Game
15
31

EPA

EPA / Play
21
21
EPA / Pass
16
18
EPA / Rush
22
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
7
Interceptions / Game
30
23
Fumbles / Game
27
2
Turnover EPA / Game
2
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
27
4th Down Efficiency
28
11
RZ Efficiency
7
20
Cowboys Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cowboys logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
17
Yards / Game
13
4
Passing Yards / Game
4
12
Rushing Yards / Game
17
8

EPA

EPA / Play
24
11
EPA / Pass
25
8
EPA / Rush
18
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
12
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
31
6
Turnover EPA / Game
4
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
3
4th Down Efficiency
22
25
RZ Efficiency
29
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-5
L
L
U
10/11
-26
L
L
O
10/18
8
W
W
U
10/25
27
W
W
U
11/01
-10
L
L
O
11/05
-17
L
L
O
11/15
-14
L
L
U
11/29
3
W
W
U
12/07
-10
L
L
O
12/13
-8
L
L
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-11
L
L
O
10/11
3
W
L
O
10/19
-28
L
L
U
10/25
-22
L
L
U
11/01
-14
L
L
U
11/08
-5
L
W
U
11/22
3
W
W
O
11/26
-25
L
L
O
12/08
-17
L
L
O
12/13
23
W
W
U