Team Summary
Team stats and rankings measure a point in time and update week to week. Elo rankings are gross of any adjustments, including QB. The downgrade for an injured QB is reflected in the EV calculations below.
 | |||||||
| Steelers | |||||||
| (8 - 2 - 0) | pythag wins: 7 | |||||||
nfelo | Net EPA / Play | ||||||
| 1557 (12) | 0.08 (10) | ||||||
@
 | |||||||
| Browns | |||||||
| (2 - 8 - 0) | pythag wins: 2.7 | |||||||
nfelo | Net EPA / Play | ||||||
| 1391 (29) | -0.14 (27) | ||||||
| EPA Ranks | | |
| Offense | 16 | 28 |
| Pass | 14 | 29 |
| Run | 19 | 24 |
| Defense | 6 | 18 |
| Pass | 5 | 18 |
| Run | 5 | 19 |
EV Calculation
Difference in nfelo ratings (ie Power Ratings) is adjusted for context, regressed to the market, and translated to a spread. This spread is then used to calculate an EV based on modeled W/L/P probabilities.
| Home nfelo | ................................................ | 1391 | |
| - | Away nfelo | ................................................ | 1557 |
| Unadj Difference | ................................................ | (166) | |
| . | |||
| + | HFA Adj ▸ | ................................................ | 25 |
| + | Net Rest Adj | ................................................ | 0 |
| + | Net QB Adj | ................................................ | (6) |
| Adj Difference | ................................................ | (147) | |
| . | |||
| Market Dif | ................................................ | (88) | |
| Market Reg. Factor | ................................................ | 0.62 | |
| Regressed Dif | ................................................ | (113) | |
| . |
Translate nfelo difference to a WP% and spread
| Team | nfelo Dif ➡ | Win Prob ➡ | nfelo Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | (113) | 34% | 4 |
| Steelers | 113 | 66% | -4 |
Translate model spread into an expected bet value (EV)▸
Browns
| Model Line | Market Line | Loss % | Push % | Cover % | Price | EV ($) | EV (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3.5 | 52% | 0% | 48% | 105 | $-6.25 | -6% |
| 4 | 3.5 | 52% | 0% | 48% | 110 | $-8.84 | -8% |
| 4 | 3.5 | 52% | 0% | 48% | 115 | $-11.44 | -9.9% |
Steelers
| Model Line | Market Line | Loss % | Push % | Cover % | Price | EV ($) | EV (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | -3.5 | 48% | 0% | 52% | 105 | $1.25 | 1.2% |
| -4 | -3.5 | 48% | 0% | 52% | 110 | $-1.16 | -1.1% |
| -4 | -3.5 | 48% | 0% | 52% | 115 | $-3.56 | -3.1% |
| . |
@greerreNFL
NFL Analytics and Betting
Follow