nfelo

Games

Teams

QBs

Analysis

Team Summary

Team stats and rankings measure a point in time and update week to week. Elo rankings are gross of any adjustments, including QB. The downgrade for an injured QB is reflected in the EV calculations below.

Buccaneers
Buccaneers
(4 - 6 - 0) | pythag wins: 5.3
nfelo
Net EPA / Play
1509 (18)-0.03 (19)

@

Giants
Giants
(2 - 8 - 0) | pythag wins: 3
nfelo
Net EPA / Play
1439 (26)-0.14 (26)
EPA Ranks
Buccaneers
Giants
Offense
11
26
Pass
11
27
Run
6
13
Defense
29
25
Pass
30
23
Run
21
25

Buccaneers Last 5 Games

OppResultMarginLineATS
SF
L 20-23
-3
6.5
W
@KC
L 24-30
-6
9.0
W
ATL
L 26-31
-5
1.5
L
BAL
L 31-41
-10
4.5
L
@NO
W 51-27
24
-3.5
W

Giants Last 5 Games

OppResultMarginLineATS
@CAR
L 17-20
-3
-6.5
L
WAS
L 22-27
-5
4.5
L
@PIT
L 18-26
-8
6.0
L
PHI
L 3-28
-25
3.0
L
CIN
L 7-17
-10
4.5
L

EV Calculation

Difference in nfelo ratings (ie Power Ratings) is adjusted for context, regressed to the market, and translated to a spread. This spread is then used to calculate an EV based on modeled W/L/P probabilities.

Home nfelo................................................1439
-Away nfelo................................................1509
Unadj Difference................................................(70)
.
+HFA Adj ▸................................................40
+Net Rest Adj................................................49
+Net QB Adj................................................(38)
Adj Difference................................................(69)
.
Market Dif................................................(150)
Market Reg. Factor................................................0.52
Regressed Dif................................................(109)
.

Translate nfelo difference to a WP% and spread

Teamnfelo Dif ➡Win Prob ➡nfelo Spread
Giants(109)35%4
Buccaneers10965%-4

Translate model spread into an expected bet value (EV)▸

Giants

Model LineMarket LineLoss %Push %Cover %PriceEV ($)EV (%)
4644%3%53%105$6.145.8%
4644%3%53%110$3.923.6%
4644%3%53%115$1.71.5%

Buccaneers

Model LineMarket LineLoss %Push %Cover %PriceEV ($)EV (%)
-4-653%3%44%105$-11-10.5%
-4-653%3%44%110$-13.64-12.4%
-4-653%3%44%115$-16.28-14.2%
.