Analysis
A summary of all the research and insights that go into the models found on the nfelo app
Featured Posts ✨
EPA
Expected Points Added
NFL
October 23rd, 2021
What are Expected Points Added (EPA) in the NFL
If you follow the NFL, and especially if you follow football analytics, Expected Points Added (EPA) is a metric you’ve seen being used more and more. But what is EPA? This post will help explain the intuition behind Expect Points, how Expected Points Added is calculated from Expected Points, and how to think about both in the context of analytics.
Models
Prediction
Betting
November 8th, 2020
Using Market Regression to Improve Prediction Accuracy in the NFL
Regressing a predictive NFL model to market spreads creates a model that reliably beats the Vegas line
EV
Models
Key Numbers
November 1st, 2020
Margin Probabilities from NFL Spreads
By using data to model key numbers in NFL outcomes, the expected value (EV) of a bet can be calculated more accurately
Weighted EPA
Prediction
Modles
Expected Points Added
EPA
September 5th, 2020
Weighted EPA Methodology & Performance
Weighting Expected Points Added (EPA) yields a model that predicts future NFL team performance better than point differential and DVOA
Home Field Advantage 🏟
QBs ☄
Models 📊
Over Expected Metrics Explained -- What are CPOE, RYOE, and YACOE
July 29th, 2022
A Simple Model for Cover Probability
May 9th, 2021
Using Market Regression to Improve Prediction Accuracy in the NFL
November 8th, 2020
Margin Probabilities from NFL Spreads
November 1st, 2020
What's the Best NFL Game Grade?
December 26th, 2019
All Posts 📚
The Perfect Passer Rating
April 29th, 2023
Passer Rating vs QBR
December 19th, 2022
What are the best metrics for NFL Quarterbacks
August 28th, 2022
Over Expected Metrics Explained -- What are CPOE, RYOE, and YACOE
July 29th, 2022
Team & Scheme, the Under-appreciated Elements of QB Play in the NFL
December 30th, 2021
A Further Exploration of Home Field Advantage in the NFL
December 20th, 2021
What are Expected Points Added (EPA) in the NFL
October 23rd, 2021
A Simple Model for Cover Probability
May 9th, 2021
Using Market Regression to Improve Prediction Accuracy in the NFL
November 8th, 2020
Margin Probabilities from NFL Spreads
November 1st, 2020
Weighted EPA Methodology & Performance
September 5th, 2020
An Initial Exploration of Home Field Advantage in the NFL
January 1st, 2020
What's the Best NFL Game Grade?
December 26th, 2019
@greerreNFL
NFL Analytics and Betting
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