PredictionTracker's most accurate model of 2024

Data Driven
NFL Predictions

Using play-by-play data, advanced metrics, and custom models to generate picks and power rankings for all 32 teams.

56.4%
Win Rate (Open)
53.9%
Win Rate (Close)
+5.5%
Avg CLV
Power Rankings

Elo rankings for the NFL

Track team strength, efficiency, and momentum throughout the season using a custom Elo model tailored to the dynamics of the NFL.

Power Rankings
1
Lions logo
Lions
1636
294
2
Chiefs logo
Chiefs
1629
283
3
Bills logo
Bills
1621
166
4
Rams logo
Rams
1614
278
5
Packers logo
Packers
1598
88
6
Texans logo
Texans
1584
68
7
Seahawks logo
Seahawks
1580
151
8
Eagles logo
Eagles
1579
-35
Weekly Projections

Find expected value

nfelo's power ratings are translated into spreads, win probabilities, and confidence picks for every game. Games with positive expected value are highlighted.

Projections
5 +EV
Giants @ Broncos
Pick: Broncos
Broncos logo
-7.0
Panthers @ Jets
Pick: Jets
Panthers logo
-1.5
Patriots @ Titans
Pick: Titans
Patriots logo
-7.0
Dolphins @ Browns
Pick: Dolphins
Browns logo
-2.5
Packers @ Cardinals
Pick: Cardinals
Packers logo
-6.5
Model Performance

Transparent Model Performance

nfelo's performance backtest is updated weekly and available back to 2009. Picks are submitted and tracked by PredictionTracker.com, and the model code is available openly on Github.

Model Performance
+100.90u
Units
(vs Open)
56.4%
Win Rate
(vs Open)
4K
Total
Games